The holiday season and start of a new year encourage media retrospectives about financial markets. It’s fun to match these up with what people were saying a year before.
In December 2011, Barron’s told investors to “buckle up.” The consensus prediction of its panel of ten stock market strategists and investment managers was for the S&P 500 to end 2012 some 11.5% higher, at about 1,360.
“That sounds like a big gain, but a lot of things have to go right for the market to make such impressive headway,” the writer said. “Even the most bullish of these Street seers fears stocks could be more wobbly in the next six months than in the six months past.”
There was so much for forecasters to get right—the negotiation of the euro zone crisis, uncertainties over the growth of earnings, the roadblock of the US presidential election, and the challenge for emerging economies to sustain high economic growth rates.